What do the Latest Developments in the Middle East Tell Us?

The Syrian war, which is a part and a front of the ongoing Third World War, has flared up with unprecedented speed after nearly five years. HTS forces, together with other partners, launched an offensive on 27 November, captured Aleppo and started advancing towards Hama. First of all, we must say that this wave of attacks following the war that Israel started in Gaza and spread to Lebanon is a sign of a new phase in the Greater Middle East Project. US imperialism together with its partners has decided to accelerate the project. The US, which has taken the war to a new level with Israel by using the excuse of the organisations it calls terrorist and their actions, is now accelerating the act of destruction through HTS, which it calls terrorist.

It seems that the US wants to make serious progress on the Middle East front of the world war. The main objectives are the end of the mullah regime in Iran, the redrawing of the state borders in the region, which were originally drawn at the end of World War I, according to the current balance of power, and the creation of new states. Having carried the destruction to its final point, it is trying to move on to the stage of ‘making the necessary arrangements’. Whether this is achieved or not, it aims to focus on the next ring, the Pacific front, as soon as possible.

The US-Israel has pressed the button and the curtain has been opened for a new wave of attacks against Iran. It is known that the other side of the war Israel is waging in Lebanon is the Hezbollah in other words Iran, and that Syria is the gateway to Iran.Now, when the Hezbollah forces in Syria and Lebanon and the official or unofficial forces affiliated with Iran have been heavily hit and weakened, the Zionists and US imperialism think that it is time to deal a final blow to the Assad administration.It is no coincidence that the jihadists attacked Aleppo a few hours after the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, in his speech announcing a ceasefire in Lebanon, threatened Syria very openly.

In this process, the US-UK-Israeli front, which seems to have put HTS and its affiliated forces through a serious preparation process and equipped them with weapons that cannot be easily obtained technically, took action by taking into account the weak military capacity of the Assad regime, the recent blows suffered by Iranian military forces and the difficult situation in which Russia finds itself.As it is known, with the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, Russia shifted most of its military forces in Syria to Ukraine, which significantly weakened its effectiveness in Syria. All these weaknesses allowed HTS to seize Aleppo with unexpected ease and expand its operation further.

Until the developments following the Gaza war, the US-Israeli war with Iran had been indirect. Israel's attacks on Iran directly and on Iranian generals in Syria have made the war direct. So have similar actions by the US.Iran was one of the primary targets of the US's GMEP. Obviously, the US-Israeli camp thinks that it is now Iran's turn to be directly targeted and they have decided to start the second phase of the GMEP in which Iran is directly targeted.All this clearly shows that the issue is not limited to Syria.Along with Syria, they also intend to break the Iranian influence in Iraq and then knock on Iran's door.

On the other hand, another common feature of all these countries is the existence of the Kurds as a divided people in all of them. For US imperialism to reshape these three countries as it wishes means that it is attempting to "solve" the Kurdish problem in line with its own interests throughout the region. The aim of the US is to give the Kurdish presence in Rojava a permanent status, legitimacy and recognition. But this requires a change in Turkey, where the largest part of the Kurdish people lives.In this case, Turkey must both take a clear position against Iran and acquiesce to the imperialist plans for the Kurdistan question.The first issue can be dealt with easily, since one of the factory settings of the Turkish ruling class is to oppose Iran as its strongest rival in the region, and the sectarian mentality of the Erdoğan team makes this even easier.As for the plans made in the imperialist centres for Kurdistan, it is not possible to bring the Turkish rulers into line with  snapping fingers. Even the mere mention of this brings about serious rifts and conflicts within the Turkish ruling class. As a matter of fact, this state of tension and conflict has already begun, as can be seen from some of the initiatives that have become public since the beginning of autumn.

TR's involvement

Although the TR (Turkish Republic) does not seem to officially embrace or support the HTS attack (the US has also stated that it is not about us), it has expressed its support for it in many leaked statements. On the other hand, some JDP (Justice and Development Party) supporters did not delay in expressing their imperial dreams by immediately shouting “Aleppo, Mosul and Kirkuk are ours too”.

It is clear that the Erdoğan government is responsible for the destruction of Syria with the policies it has pursued from the beginning. But let us not forget that the US-UK-Israel bloc is mainly responsible for this destruction, and the Erdoğan government has a share in the destruction as a junior partner of this bloc. Afterwards, although they had a falling out with this bloc in Syria due to the development of the Kurdish issue, the TR has never been able to reach a playmaker position. Today, as the US-Israel is mobilising again in Syria, Erdoğan is acting in line with his own interests. As a matter of fact, politicians and writers in the ruling party line complain about HTS's refraining from clashing with the Kurds and reproach the US. Moreover, on the third day of the attack, the SNA troops led by the TR moved southwards from al-Bab towards Aleppo and clashed with the Kurdish forces. This is the front which is opened by TR.

It is no secret that the TR has set its sights on the Kurdish areas in Manbij and Tel Rifat, and that it wants to completely neutralise the Kurds west of the Euphrates. Until today, when it attempted to invade Afrin, it had the approval of the USA and Russia, but it was told not to touch Manbij. It is highly unlikely that both imperialist powers will give the TR the green light for Manbij this time. Nevertheless, we should not forget that Erdoğan is waiting for an opportunity to destroy or weaken the Kurdish presence there. As a matter of fact, Erdoğan will want to enter the negotiations to be carried out in the upcoming Trump era by strengthening his hand, and he has already demonstrated that he can take adventurous steps.

How Russia will react to the developments in the upcoming period will be of decisive importance. In previous years, Russia's involvement had changed the entire balance of the Syrian war, greatly limiting the US's sphere of influence and ultimately leading to the picture that prevailed until yesterday. However, Russia's inability to fully control Assad and its preoccupation with the war in Ukraine have led to a major erosion of this role, and US imperialism is now taking full advantage of the vacuum created through the HTS attack. With Trump in office, it is highly probable that he will make concessions to Russia in Ukraine and try to extract concessions from it in the Middle East.

In any case, what is happening means that the new escalation phase of the Middle East war, which has been going on for the last year, will continue at full speed and imperialist plans will accelerate. A period of growing suffering awaits all the labourers of the region. Even the smallest concession to the statist and nationalist hysteria means playing into rulers' hands. The working class cannot have any common interest with the rulers who claim that “Aleppo is ours” and “Mosul is ours”. The real interests of the labourers of all countries of the region are common. It is imperative to stand against war and the efforts to spread it, and on this basis to strengthen the common struggle of the working class and oppressed peoples.

Down with the Imperialist War Mongers!

Down with the Capitalist Exploiters!

Long Live the Unity of Workers, Brotherhood of Peoples!