Political Perspectives: World and Turkey - 2024

In the following document we, Marksist Tutum, present our perspectives and a general framework of our analyses of the political, economic and social developments in the world and Turkey, which will guide us in the period of struggle ahead.

Main tendencies of the capitalist economy in the present period

1. With the 2000s capitalism has entered a period of historical stagnation and crisis. This crisis is far beyond the periodic crises of imperialist capitalism. It is a structural crisis of colossal scale, which makes the tendency to stagnate, characteristic of monopolistic relations, deeper and almost lasting. Capitalism is now in its old age,it has exhausted the potential for overcoming this period through some structural transformations and re-entering a new long and robust period of upswing.
2. This is a system crisis, it involves the whole system, all its realms, and confronts the system with an existential problem. Capitalism has become a completely destructive system for humanity, as can be seen from the tendency of average rates of profit to fall, the alarming increase in the number of unemployed, the insoluble problem of under-consumption, and the preparation of ever more destructive crises through crisis postponement mechanisms.
3. We are at a stage where the credit mechanism, which has rendered great service to capitalism and played a key role in overcoming its bottlenecks in previous historical phases, has been greatly eroded. The crisis of world capitalism is deepening year by year, and the problems that were swept under the carpet by the policies implemented at every jolt of the crisis are growing like a mountain. Since the early 2000s, but especially since 2008, the crisis has been manifesting itself in frequent battering ram strikes, as evidenced by the giant banks going bankrupt or being hardly kept afloat in the USA and Europe. Zombie companies are growing in number and size, banks are weakening...
4. With new technological developments increasing labour productivity, global unemployment rates are rising further. Regular and “secure” jobs are becoming the exception. Qualification is losing its meaning more and more every day through technology. Young generations are unemployed and face the danger of a poor future. For the first time in the history of capitalism, the younger generations who happened to find work are poorer than their parents, and there is no positive dynamic on the horizon to change this situation.
5. In the aftermath of one crisis after another, neither the unprecedented sums of money poured into the system nor the technological breakthroughs have been able to bring about a revival like in the old days. The economic outlook is characterised by a general state of creeping and stagnation. Revival aside, the trillions of dollars poured into the system to save the giant monopolies have created an unsolvable indebtedness situation by increasing the already high debt mountains to the highest levels in history.
6. The most striking aspect of the capitalist world economy in the recent period is that the trillions of dollars printed to bail out the giant corporations, especially the banks, have driven up inflation to levels not seen in the last 40 years. However, at the beginning of this process it was propagandised that “there would be no inflation”. In the process, the real wages of the working class, and therefore their purchasing power, have been dealt a severe blow. In recent years, workers in the advanced capitalist countries have seen their living standards fall sharply.
7. The fact that capitalism has spread and penetrated literally the entire planet, that the rates of profit have fallen sharply and the possibilities for productive investment have shrunk, has led to an extraordinary inflation of the speculative sphere and that the system turned into a sort of general casino-like system. This, in turn, increases the instability of the system and brews more serious and destructive crises.
8. In the last year, we have seen that a tendency, which has started to raise its voice in recent years, saying that capitalism needs to be reformed, has almost disappeared into thin air. Despite all the reformist rhetoric, the most glamorous version of which is the “Great Reset”, the system is going on the same old way. Within the scope of this discourse, the old Keynesian approaches were generally glorified, but now they are not heard either. As we have emphasised, the system has exhausted the possibilities of reform. Even though there may be those who want this, the functioning of the system and the point it has reached cannot bear it. This is simply the reason why the discourses in question, although they had a bright rise for a while, quickly evaporated into thin air.
9. The contradictions of capitalism have reached a new level as the technology of artificial intelligence, after a long period of accumulation and infancy, began to bear fruit last year. While the propagandists of the order are extolling the blessings of this new technology, in reality it is the growing dilemmas of capitalism that lie before us. Although the significant increases in labour productivity and falling costs that will be achieved by artificial intelligence technologies make capital rub its hands with glee, in reality the falling rates of profit, the chronic problem of underconsumption and the growing number of unemployed are the basic elements that define these dilemmas.
10. One of the dimensions of this historic crisis is the increase in trade and technology wars between the capitalist powers. Increasing protectionist measures, embargoes, sanctions, attempts to restrict and prevent the spread of technological innovations do not work in favour of the system as a whole; on the contrary, they deepen the crisis. These moves undermine the gains in labour productivity that capitalism has made in the last quarter of a century, when it increased the international division of labour by leaps and bounds. In this sense, capitalism is at war with itself. Competition for natural resources is intensifying, the tendency towards division into blocs is increasing, rival monetary and payment systems are emerging, established trade routes and supply chains are being disrupted, and the pace of international investment is slowing due to increasing barriers.
11. While the bourgeoisie deepens social inequality and impoverishment with every step it takes, the fortunes of a handful of the super-rich are growing. As it is known, during the pandemic period of Covid-19, when the rulers pretended to be on the alert to save humanity from disaster, millions of people lost their lives, while hundreds of millions of workers were unemployed and driven into hunger. But in the same period a new dollar billionaire was added to the list of billionaires every 30 hours.
12. Therefore, even if only this economic dimension of the historical system crisis of capitalism is considered, a difficult period of struggle awaits the world working class. As far as the policies of the capital are concerned, the tendencies that have been operating since the 80s are being tried to continue even more violently. Capitalism imposes unemployment, precariousness and impoverishment on the working class on a global scale and there is no new period of reform that could mean a general improvement of the working class’ working and living conditions.

Crisis of hegemony and the course and recent developments of the imperialist war

13. The historical crisis of capitalism has brought contradictions and conflicts to the limit in every field. This situation is also embodied as a crisis of hegemony. The conditions that lead the system to a crisis of hegemony always manifest themselves in periods of great upheavals and chaos. The Third World War, which has been raging in various forms and means since the turn of the millennium, is the result of the contradictions and frictions arising from the rivalry for hegemony between the imperialist powers. More than 15 years ago, while analysing the Third World War, we said: “The Third World War has started and for the time being it is going on in this way. We cannot predict how this battlefield will expand tomorrow. But it is a known fact that Russia and China, the rising imperialist powers of the current period, will become more and more involved in the conflicts in the regions subject to re-division. The conflicts between the powers competing for hegemony will bring about the formation of new imperialist blocs and escalating conflicts between these blocs. (...) However, under the changing conditions of today’s world, the ending of the wars for hegemony on a global scale will not be a simple repetition of the past. Failure to beat one another, endless rivalries, etc. may lead to a chaotic situation that will last for a very long time.”[*] As a matter of fact, this war, which has grown and spread in the process, has developed exactly along the lines described above, and the moves of Russia and China in the areas subject to re-division have become broader. It is possible that both the USA, whose hegemony is gradually eroding, and China and Russia, which do not have the power to replace it but are positioned against it, may make moves that could set the whole world on fire in a rapid way.
14. Looking at the balance of power in today’s world as a whole, it does not seem possible for any state to re-establish a situation similar to the absolute US hegemony over the capitalist world of the “Cold War” period. We are confronted with a world in which there are many imperialist great powers, that are nuclear powers as well, in fierce competition. The high danger of mutual destruction makes it difficult for one side in a war to subjugate the other in the old way. This is one of the main reasons why the Third World War is proceeding in a peculiar way.
15. Unlike the two great world wars of the past, today’s war is being fought far away from the imperialist metropolises and is being fought in the spheres of influence subject to division. The great powers are fighting with one another without directly confronting each other on the front lines. In addition to direct military methods, attacks against civilians in imperialist metropolises, civil wars provoked in some countries, “colour revolutions”, coup d’états, cyber attacks, sabotage, etc. are also methods used in this great war. The new world war is also intertwined with trade wars. The “trade and technology” war between the USA and China is not a temporary dispute that will end with compromises and negotiations.
16. Indeed, in the National Security Strategy for 2022 published by the Biden administration, Russia is defined as “an immediate threat”, while China is described as “the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to advance that goal”. The document points to the next 10 years, saying that the world is at a crossroads: “This decade will be decisive in determining the terms of competition with China and in managing the acute threat posed by Russia”. This means that the imperialist war, which has expanded from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen to Ukraine, will spread to the new areas of division at a much greater speed and with an even greater destructiveness. As a matter of fact, the Middle East, which the imperialist powers have not yet been able to defeat one another, has recently been targeted again and altogether.
17. The Palestinian people faced the second “Nakba” when Israel began to raze the Gaza Strip to the ground under the pretext of the heavy rocket attack by Hamas on 7 October. It is not possible to consider the ruthless Israeli terror, which has turned into genocide with incessant bombings, massacres and deportations, and the Hamas attack, which was used as a pretext for this war, separately from the ongoing imperialist war of division and power polarisation. The Israeli-Palestinian front has been added to the Third World War as a link that will lead to the reshuffling of all the cards in the region. On the one hand, there is the USA, the EU and their Pacific allies, who unconditionally support Israel, and on the other hand, there is the Iran-Russia-China imperialist axis, which supports and orients Hamas. The Gaza war also had the effect of clarifying the ranks in the imperialist confrontation.
18. In order to assess the multidimensional rivalry and confrontation between the great powers correctly, it is first necessary to assess the nature of these powers accurately. It is essential to realize that China and Russia have become imperialist powers. We often see serious swings when political circles, unable to break free from their ready-made formulations and captive of their past analyses and positions, ignore this reality. With analyses that are far from template approaches, we have revealed the transformation of these two great powers in the process through meticulous analyses and identified their imperialist nature. Without seeing this fact, it is impossible to comprehend the ongoing imperialist hegemony race and to take the right attitude towards the imperialist war of division, which is one of its consequences. As a matter of fact, the destructive political consequences of this have shown themselves in the war in Ukraine.
19. In February 2022, Russia’s attack on Ukraine brought the Third World War into a new phase. From the very first day of its outbreak, we identified that this war was an unjust and imperialist war, with US-NATO on one side and Russian imperialism on the other, and we determined our political stance accordingly. We pointed out that skipping this point would pave the way for the labourers to be backed up to one or another imperialist camp. However, we have witnessed that not only the unorganised and unconscious masses, who are defenceless in the face of the double-sided bourgeois propaganda bombardment, but also a considerable part of the socialist organisations has fallen into this situation. Some of those who reject the fact that this war is an imperialist war have reduced it to the defence of Ukraine’s homeland and lined up behind the US-NATO imperialist bloc. The other part, on the other hand, took the side of Russia, which they regarded as a state that was acting in self-defence in the face of the NATO siege. The common point of those defending this position is that they do not recognise Russia and China as imperialist powers. This position brought about a swing nearly to the point of tail-ending an imperialist bloc.
20. This political and ideological swing manifests itself not only in the war in Ukraine but in every field where the imperialist hegemony war is waged. The developments in Africa are typical examples of this. Many applaud the successive pro-Russian coups in the countries of the African belt called Sahel as “anti-imperialist struggles” against American and French imperialism. However, what we have before our eyes is a clear expression of a bourgeois struggle.
21. The ongoing world war is the most extreme manifestation of the imperialist struggle for hegemony, but this struggle does not only manifest itself in war, but also takes on other forms. Formation of international alliances in various forms, polarisation, attempts to gather new forces into ranks, economic sanctions, trade embargoes, diplomatic manoeuvres, etc. are forms of confrontation that are increasingly appear in today’s world. As a matter of fact, all these are reflected in the changes in the composition of organisations such as the WTO, G20, G7, NATO, SCO, BRICS, etc. and in the decisions taken at their summits. As we pointed out at the beginning of the millennium, turbulent periods may dissolve old economic pacts or change their compositions, while creating new unions and structures. Some countries, which yesterday were considered to be at the forefront, may recede, while others may leap forward. Today, China and Russia, as newcomer imperialist powers, are trying to carve out a space for themselves against the established Western imperialist powers of the global hierarchy and to gain spheres of influence. As the erosion of the hegemony of the USA leads to a loosening of the gravitational pull of the imperialist Western pole, China and Russia are taking advantage of this and expanding their spheres of influence. Both of them have gained new positions with the economic, political and military ties they have established and strengthened with many countries from Africa to Asia, from the Middle East to Latin America.
22. Economically, China has become the greatest imperialist power confronting the US. In its endeavour to contain it, the US is resorting to every means, from trade wars to the Asia-Pacific encirclement. China is the target of the Taiwan crisis, the rapid militarisation of Japan, the plans carried out in alliance with South Korea and Australia. In the face of China’s rise, the Japanese rulers are taking steps to further increase the tension in the region by co-operating with the US. With utter hypocrisy, the US wants to rearm Japan, which it once disarmed, in line with its interests. On the other hand, China is preparing for new fronts to be opened in the region by increasing its armament and stockpiling grain and energy. The Asia-Pacific region has turned into a powder keg with the militarist build-up of the two imperialist poles.
23. With capitalism stagnating, imperialist powers are attempting to stimulate the economy and ease the burden of the crisis not only by expanding battlefields but also by militarising industry. World military expenditures exceeded 2.24 trillion dollars in 2022 and continue to rise. The US leads in this regard, with a 39% share and expenditures approaching 880 billion dollars last year. China is the world’s second-largest power, with a 13% share. Europe’s military expenditures have increased dramatically due to the war in Ukraine. Similarly, the Israeli attack on Gaza has also had a significant impact.
24. While capitalism ravages the world with wars, peace has become as vital a necessity for the peoples as bread and water. Today, millions of people all over the world, particularly in Europe, are taking to the streets with slogans of peace and calling for an end to the oppression of the Palestinian people by the Zionist state of Israel. However, as long as capitalism continues to exist, it is not possible for wars to end. Therefore, working people who want a permanent peace must wage a struggle against capitalism with the slogan of “class war against war”.

Ecological crisis

25. No matter what contemporary problem we address, we are confronted with the fact that capitalism has become a global monster threatening the future of our planet. The 21st century’s explosive outbreak of global catastrophes is a striking reflection of the apocalyptic age of capitalism. The historical system crisis manifests itself from the economic to the political sphere, from science and culture to the collapse of international diplomacy, from the spreading imperialist war and the authoritarian tendency of bourgeois states to all aspects of everyday life. One of its extremely important dimensions is the ecological crisis.
26. Global climate change, which manifests itself with increasingly destructive consequences such as extreme hot and cold weather conditions, storms, floods, droughts, forest fires, cities made uninhabitable, massive environmental pollution, destruction and pollution of clean water resources, increasing barrenness of arable land, deforestation, drying up of rivers and lakes, dying of seas and oceans, extinction of species, chemical and radioactive wastes, etc., are all part of this picture of ecological crisis. Unlike in previous periods, all these problems have for the first time become a threat to the whole of humanity with the rapid destruction they are causing, and that is why the reaction and mobilisation of the working masses is showing a serious increase all over the world, from Brazil to Turkey, from India to Europe.
27. The looting and plundering of nature in Turkey through mines, power plants, roads and constructions has accelerated especially after the fascist regime came to power. The fascist government, which has been plundering any place it wants with midnight decrees to any capital group it wants, has even used the Maraş-Antep-Hatay earthquakes as an opportunity to create new areas of real-estate business. There is no region in Anatolia where nature has not been plundered; not only forested and virgin areas, but also agricultural areas have received their share of this raging attack. It was impossible for this raging attack not to provoke a reaction, and so it did. The villagers, who had previously been easily deceived by the institutions of political power, began to show a conscious reaction as they realised that their habitat, livelihood and future were being taken away from them. As this reaction grew and spread, although capital and the fascist regime did not hesitate to try to crush it with all kinds of violence, it can be seen that the dynamics of continuity of the movement is strong. However, the inability to unite the struggles that are rising in the face of the multidimensional problems created by capitalism, due to the weakness and lack of perspective of the trade union and political organisations of the working class, means that the reactions remain singular, isolated and scattered and do not reach their potential power. This is a weakness not only in Turkey but in the whole world. The way out of the impasse depends on making the struggle against environmental problems part of the struggle against capitalism.

Migration crisis

28. Wars, repression under authoritarian regimes, poverty, unemployment and ecological destruction have also led to a massive migration crisis, with hundreds of millions of people forced to flee their homes in order to survive. Hundreds of millions of people are travelling from South and Central America to the US, from Asia and Africa to Europe in the hope of a better life. According to the United Nations, the number of migrants worldwide has risen to 281 million in 2020. However, considering that more than 6 million people have left their country due to the war in Ukraine alone by 2022, it can be estimated that this number has already exceeded 300 million. Such an exponential increase in the number of migrants in 25 years, which was around 120 million at the turn of the millennium, is one of the concrete expressions of the rottenness, stagnation and impasse of capitalism, which declared victory over “socialism” after the collapse of the USSR, promising democracy, freedom and prosperity.
29. The imperialist rulers, who have brought the world to this state, do not care in the least about the humanitarian crisis they have created, while they do not hesitate to resort to the most inhuman means to prevent migrants from crossing the borders of the EU and the USA. In addition to the bloody walls they are building on the borders, they are also throwing millions of migrant workers into the lap of disaster with the new harsh immigration laws. European countries, which boast of their “democracy and freedoms”, are preparing prison sentences of up to several years, camps to be built in African countries, mobile prisons in the form of ships for migrants who enter the country illegally, as seen in the example of the UK. This is how the masters who use immigrants to satisfy their need for cheap labour deal with the surplus. On the other hand, the growing migrant population is the easiest target to scapegoat for the problems caused by capitalism.
30. Since the beginning of the Syrian war, the regime in Turkey has been using migrants as a blackmail and bargaining chip against Europe. By holding migrants hostage, it tries to ensure the EU’s silence on its internal oppression and tyranny. On the other hand, it abandons the migrants to severe conditions of misery and exploitation. In Turkey, which is facing the largest influx of migrants in its history, millions of migrant workers are literally used as slave labour in all sectors, from agriculture to industry. Millions of migrant workers, aged between 7 and 70, are forced to work for peanuts, live in misery and are subjected to vile racism by being blamed for unemployment, low wages, high rents, various crimes and even infectious diseases. In this way, the workers are prevented from directing their anger and reaction against the capitalist system, which is the real source of the problems, and thus prevented from struggling together.
31. Unless the common struggle of migrant workers and “native” workers is organised under the same roof, it is impossible to overcome the negative prejudices that these sections have against each other. Otherwise, these sections of the working class are each other’s rivals, a rivalry that the bourgeoisie very consciously nurtures and incites! Against the racist, nationalist rampage against migrant workers, our efforts to spread this perspective among all class sections continue unabated.

Fascist movements and authoritarian regimes on the rise

32. While the economic and political convulsions caused by capitalism reaching its historical limits are dragging hundreds of millions of workers from one catastrophe to another, the bourgeoisie is fuelling authoritarian/totalitarian tendencies, curtailing democratic rights and freedoms and strengthening the repressive apparatus of the state in order to pre-empt the growing class struggle. Today, with the political stability of the bourgeois order consigned to history, we are witnessing novelties that have not been seen for decades even in many Western countries. It has become commonplace for governments not to be formed after elections and for the governments that are formed not to hold together and to be painfully replaced by new ones.
33. The period we are passing through is one in which bourgeois institutionalism, legality, rules and customs formed over centuries are being trampled underfoot by the bourgeoisie itself. Bourgeois parliamentarism is weakening and gradually losing its meaning. What happened during the Covid-19 pandemic has clearly shown this. Thanks to this handy weapon, the bourgeois governments in all countries were equipped with extraordinary powers. At that time, we stated that “bourgeois governments, which have made an unprecedented leap towards authoritarianism, will not give up these powers easily” and that “they will form an integral part of the so-called ‘new normal’”, and so it has been. What is more, fascist leaders and movements have become more reckless, and it has been seen that many things that were said “this much cannot be done” can be done.
34. The most striking example of this is the fascist coup attempt (January 2021), which took place by storming the US Congress at the call of Trump, who was due to leave office. In France in the spring of the same year, thousands of soldiers and police officers, including many generals, threatened the Macron government with Islamophobic, fascist memoranda and called for a coup. In Peru and Colombia, leftist leaders were overthrown in coups. In Brazil, thousands of pro-Bolsonaro fascists stormed Congress in January 2023 to prevent the Workers’ Party’s Lula from taking power.
35. The common denominator of the fascist movements, which have increased their votes in the elections of recent years in almost all European countries, have entered the parliaments and have even become partners in power in some countries, is a racist nationalism, embodied in anti-immigrant and anti-EU sentiments. Fascist movements, which see the rapid growth of immigrant populations from Asia and Africa as a vital threat, have reached a strength not seen since the Second World War, especially in Europe. In Hungary, Orban was elected president for a second term in 2022 with more votes than expected. At the same time, a fascist coalition government was formed in Italy, led by Meloni. In France, the fascist Le Pen has steadily increased her votes, while fascist parties in Germany and Sweden continue to gain power at a rapid pace. At the end of 2023, the fascist Wilders, who won a clear victory in the early elections in the Netherlands, was added to this European picture.
36. The situation is no different in other countries of the world. In 2022, in the Philippines, where the fascist Duterte could not run for office due to the expiry of his term, the new government formed by the Marcos-Duterte son-daughter duo took over. Modi, who continues to rule in India, escalates the fascist repression. In November 2023, the fascist Milei, who came to power in Argentina, made a strong “contribution” to this picture from the Latin American side. Trump, whose political career was thought to have ended with the raid on Congress, is once again the strongest presidential candidate and is preparing for the 2024 elections. In Turkey, Erdoğan’s fascism, which has been in power for seven years, has further consolidated its power with the 2023 elections. This world picture shows that fascist policies and politicians rising on the ground paved by the historical crisis of capitalism are not accidental, coincidental and temporary.

Class struggle is on the rise all over the world

37. The crisis of capitalism generates revolutionary dynamics as well as reactionary political tendencies. While the enormous problems created by capitalism are growing with new dimensions and new manifestations and class contradictions are sharpening, the class struggle is rising in waves. The rapidly changing conditions are leading to rapid leaps in the consciousness of the working class; unionisation efforts are gaining momentum and the idea of social change is spreading. Young people are turning to socialist ideas and organised struggle. Women are raising the banner of rebellion against this male-dominated order and are at the forefront of the struggle in every part of the world without exception. Even the small peasants, whose intermediate class position makes it extremely difficult for them to break out of the shackles of the system, are engaged in militant struggles because their living and production areas have been subjected to all kinds of destruction by capitalism and they have become slaves of the big corporations. In short, capitalism forces all workers and oppressed to struggle for survival.
38. In 2020 we said that neither the prohibitions and usurpations of rights introduced under the pretext of the pandemic, nor projects such as the “Great Reset” could be a panacea for the problems of the capitalists, and that the storm of rebellion would intensify rather than cease, which is what has happened. The working people, forced to bear the full burden of the crisis and the pandemic, raised the banner of rebellion against economic destruction and political repression all over the world.

Europe and America, where the working class is facing a cost and impoverishment it has not experienced for decades, have witnessed the most massive and militant strikes of the last forty years. The popular revolts in Tunisia, Sudan, Kazakhstan, the fire ignited by the murder of Jina Mahsa Amini by the regime forces in Iran, which became the cry of revolt of millions of workers, especially women and youth, and the giant strikes of 250 million people in India were among the glorious upsurges of the class struggle in this period. Similarly, the putschist monarchist government in Thailand could not withstand the rising popular movement and was buried in the elections. In Sri Lanka, working people overthrew a family dynasty that had dominated politics for decades.

Latin American workers have also repeatedly risen up in this process. The Colombian workers’ slogan “No bread for the poor, no peace for the rich” clearly expresses that there can be no capitalism without class struggle. Indeed, in the elections held in this energetic environment, the workers brought left leaders to power in Chile, Peru, Colombia and Brazil.

39. While the anger of the working people, who are rising against poverty, unemployment, capitalist offensive, oppression and tyranny, is actually directed, albeit unconsciously, against this order of exploitation, reformist parties or leaders come to power on the rising waves of the class movement in many countries and act with the mission of confining this movement to the borders of the order. Many reformist parties and leaders, such as MAS in Bolivia, Syriza in Greece, Podemos in Spain, Obrador in Mexico, Castillo in Peru, Boric in Chile, Petro in Colombia, Lula in Brazil, have come to power promising to reform capitalism and improve the living conditions of working people, to make social inequality “fairer”, to revive the “social state”. But when they finally had to lay their hands on private property to fulfil these promises, they were unable to do so because of their class nature. Moreover, the signs of compromise they showed during their march to power were also shown in the face of the obstacles, threats and even coups they faced while in power. These bourgeois-left governments, which activated the working masses only during election periods and pushed them out of politics otherwise, derailed many revolutionary situations by absorbing all the energy of the masses. As a result, every curtailment of the revolutionary struggle of the working class eventually renders the whole of society defenceless against the harshest attacks of the capitalist order and fertilises the seedlings of fascism as a counter-revolutionary reaction of the bourgeoisie.
40. Capitalism has become a terrible machine of destruction for humanity and has no room for improvement through reform. Therefore, there is no way out for the working people, whose problems have piled up like mountains and who have become unable to breathe under these problems, except revolution. While capitalism, which has come to beat its own walls, cries out that socialism is a burning necessity with every disaster it creates, the day has come to intensify the struggle with hope and resistance. Although the period we are going through seems to be loaded with negativities in terms of the level of revolutionary consciousness and organisation of the class, those who do not surrender will pave the way for the longed-for future!

Turkey

1. Turkey has been under a civil fascist regime since 2016. This regime, which has come to life as Turkish-Islamic fascism, has, so to speak, gathered all the historical heritage of Turkey in terms of political reaction. The political Islamist current, the traditional Turkist fascist current and the most reactionary strand of Kemalism have joined forces in a fascist regime in the form of the AKP-MHP-Ergenekon alliance. The pretence of parliament and elections under this regime is deceptive. In reality, these institutions have been made more and more dysfunctional and reduced to nothing. Moreover, these institutions function as a vine that feeds an illusion at home and abroad.
2. Despite the economic devastation, massive impoverishment, rampant corruption, looting and plundering and the earthquake disaster, this regime has managed to survive due to internal and external political conditions. The internal conditions that have allowed it to do so are, first and foremost, the lack of organisation and consciousness of the working class and the state of the opposition. Under these conditions, in which the working class is completely incapacitated as a political actor, the bourgeois opposition has created the illusion that the grievances and indignation of the white-collar and middle classes will spontaneously overthrow the regime at the ballot box.
3. In our analyses of the processes of construction and institutionalisation of this regime since 2016, we have shown in detail that the Erdoğan regime is not an ordinary but an extraordinary bourgeois regime. At every stage of this process, we have emphasised that the fascist regime can only be pushed back and overthrown by the organised struggles of the working masses and the democratic forces together. Contrary to all illusions created by the bourgeois opposition, we also stated that the elections in this process were not ordinary bourgeois parliamentary elections. Unfortunately, in an environment where the Kurdish movement and the vast majority of the socialist left were in an attitude that fed the illusions created by the bourgeois opposition, these illusions could not be broken and the regime managed to emerge victorious from the ballot box games every time and turn this into a ground of legitimacy. Once again, it has become clear that it is a wrong approach to relate the removal of the regime to spontaneous processes, natural events, economic crisis, etc.
4. It is clear that the elections of 2023 May were the most critical stage of this process. Apart from the nature of the regime, these elections also revealed the character of the bourgeois opposition in all its nakedness. The fact that the socialist movement is extremely weak and that it is trapped in the parliamentary illusions created by the bourgeois parties has confined the social opposition as a whole to the framework drawn by the regime. Moreover, instead of learning lessons from what happened, all these segments started to point to the local elections that will be held in 2024 on the day after the elections, showing that they are always ready to take part in the regime’s games.
5. We cannot overlook the effects of the poisonous social atmosphere in the last elections, created by the chauvinist nationalist propaganda, brought to its peak by the regime and joined by the bourgeois opposition on the same wavelength. The society has been wallowing in this pit for decades because it has not been able to get out of the trap of nationalism, which locks the society and paralyses even the positive dynamics towards the future. This policy of all bourgeois sections, left and right, has led the Kurdish question to a dead end and turned it into a gangrene.
6. In recent years, the fascist propaganda apparatus has carried out a strong and effective campaign on the basis of “indigenous and national arms industry”, “indigenous electric car”, etc.. The main aim is to make the oppressed and exploited masses forget reality and cling to certain symbols of so-called national pride. Moreover, this propaganda campaign is also effective on the bourgeois opposition and all the bourgeois sections without exception accept it as an “example of pride”.
7. The fascist state apparatus, which has been completely transformed by the AKP-MHP-Ergenekon alliance under the leadership of Erdoğan, is also fully intertwined with the religious sects. These sects, which have become part of the regime, play an important role in ensuring that the religious and nationalist demagogy of fascism reaches the capillaries of society thanks to the effective power they have seized in all fields.
8. In addition to internal conditions, the role of external conditions is also extremely important for the survival of the fascist regime. The fact that capitalism is in a historical system crisis, on the basis of which a world war is being waged, and that the tendency towards authoritarianism and fascism is gaining strength throughout the world, increases the durability of the regime and makes it advantageous in the face of various pressures. In a world where fascist parties and leaders are coming to power one after another in different countries, where democratic rights and freedoms are being curtailed everywhere and where police-state practices are spreading under the pretext of “terror”, the fascist regime in Turkey is increasingly perceived as a normal repressive regime. In such a world, no state or group of states has the right to lecture others about democracy. This is one of the main reasons why the regime in Turkey is becoming less conspicuous and, in a way, accepted as normal.
9. In its infinite hypocrisy, the imperialist European bourgeoisie, whose own problems are big enough, is grateful for Erdoğan’s services, especially regarding the migrants. Seeing that the domestic dynamics are not enough to unsettle Erdogan, there is no reason for the EU to put Turkey under serious pressure. The US, too, prefers to find middle ground in various areas through practical compromises, as in the case of its need for Erdogan to bring Finland and Sweden into NATO. Although it does not meet Turkey’s demands in Syrian Kurdistan, on F-35 etc., it tolerates the Erdogan regime in many other issues in order not to push Turkey towards the Russia-China axis and does not exert much pressure. Under the current conditions of the imperialist hegemony struggle, countries like Turkey may have opportunities to manoeuvre in certain situations. The regime, even if it is not always successful, can make use of these opportunities.
10. One of the main elements for the establishment of the fascist regime was the ongoing imperialist war, its impact on the region in general and the internationalisation of the Kurdish question in particular. Especially during the war in Syria, the beginning of a de facto Kurdish state in Rojava was a key factor. The US support for this formation was particularly important. In the process, the regime organised many cross-border military operations to crush Rojava, occupied Afrin and turned Idlib into a base for jihadist gangs. It has continuously implemented its policy of suffocating and destroying Rojava. These operations and initiatives have led to tensions with the USA and Russia, depending on the situation, but have always been used to blow chauvinist militarist winds internally.
11. Tensions with the US and Russia have at times cost the regime dearly and at other times provided opportunities. The S-400 missile system, which led to confrontations with the US and NATO and sanctions, is a case in point. The regime spent billions of dollars buying these systems from Russia in order to gain some flexibility over Syria, to show teeth to the US and to have an important weapon, but it did not dare to install them.
12. The opening of an important episode of the imperialist struggle for hegemony and the Third World War in Ukraine in February 2022 created both risks and opportunities for the regime. On the one hand, it supported Ukraine, including providing arms, thus positioning itself on the side of the USA and NATO, but on the other hand it managed not to break ties with Russia. Moreover, by allowing Russian oligarchs to escape embargoes and sanctions, it has turned the door it opened into an economic advantage. It has also been able to open a window of legitimacy in the international arena by assuming some mediating functions.
13. The regime aims to become as independent as possible in the military field in order to strengthen its hand and expand its room for manoeuvre in the struggle for hegemony and the Third World War. To this end, considerable resources are being allocated to the domestic arms industry. It should be noted that with these steps, progress is being made towards the militarisation of the economy.
14. With the elections of May 2023, the fascist regime entered a new stage. The regime, which until the elections was under a certain pressure from some sections of the bourgeoisie, the state apparatus and the society inside and from the western imperialist centres outside, overcame this to a great extent with the elections and relaxed. It has proved itself both inside and outside, in a way it has regained confidence.
15. In the context of the May elections, those who underestimated the conditions and processes working in favour of the regime and those who exaggerated the conditions and tendencies working against it were disappointed and frustrated. It should be noted here that one of the reasons for this result was the failure to recognise the fascist character of the regime.
16. A characteristic feature of the new phase is that the regime has started to take steps to perpetuate itself with the help of the new “legitimacy” it gained after the elections. In other words, attempts are now being made to ensure that the post-Erdoğan period is also secured. Changes such as a new constitution, amendments to the electoral laws, the abolition or complete crippling of some of the laws enacted in the context of the EU accession process and the institutions created under these laws, and the reorganisation of institutions such as the Constitutional Court, which have caused problems from time to time, may be on the table at this stage.
17. There is no bourgeois opposition inside the country that can put the regime in trouble. The opposition bloc formed before the elections has been shattered. The masses opposed to the government have also been overcome by a clear sense of defeat, disappointment and despair. In addition, the number of people who think that a “strong” leader like Erdoğan is necessary because Turkey is threatened in these unstable times in the world has increased. Although mass psychology can change under various influences, it would be wrong to ignore the post-election situation.
18. On the other hand, most of the socialist movement and all opposition forces, including the Kurdish movement, are in a political crisis. The Kurdish political movement is especially under attack and its cadres have been practically mowed down. If we add the taming/corrupting effects of the work in the parliament and the municipalities, the movement has suffered a serious loss of dynamics.
19. The regime has relaxed with the elections in terms of political dynamics, but not in terms of economic dynamics. This is the case both in terms of the minimal satisfaction of the working masses and in terms of the burning needs of capital. First of all, the deterioration of the purchasing power of the working masses and therefore of their living conditions continues unabated. As the programmes announced by the new economic cadre show, new attacks on the working class and labouring masses are on the agenda. These attacks point not only to policies that directly worsen living conditions, increase impoverishment and inequality, but also to a new wave of plundering of public resources, nature and the city in general.
20. The problem of foreign resources, which is crucial for capital, has still not been solved. The economic policies pursued before the elections gradually reduced capital inflows, while at the same time plundering public resources to the fullest extent and leaving the treasury empty. Under this regime, Turkey fell from ranking 18th among the world’s largest economies in 2018 to 23rd in 2022. As it became clear that these policies were unsustainable, the regime changed its policies and personnel as soon as the elections were over. The aim was to reassure the foreign capital community and ensure capital inflows. The Islamic “nas” rhetoric was quickly put aside and the process of raising interest rates was initiated. It is not clear whether this policy will yield the desired results for the regime, as it, like the previous ones, contains numerous contradictions. The unstable state of the capitalist world economy in general, the risks of the war of hegemony and the conflicts between the different sections of the capital make the whole process uncertain.
21. In terms of economic prospects, another point to note is the narco-mafia underground economy that the regime has expanded. In the pre-election period, the regime sought to alleviate its economic problems by taking a greater share of the global drug trade and black money. It expanded both its narco-mafia networks based on black money at home and its role in the international network. To this end, structures were created and operations carried out with the direct involvement of elements at the top of the regime. These steps gave the regime some advantages in terms of economic leverage, but soon led to Turkey being placed on the international grey list. As this situation was detrimental to the post-election economic policy, which also needed to gain international credibility, police operations are now being carried out to give the impression that these structures are being dismantled.
22. In any case, what is certain is that the bill for the policies pursued before the elections will be passed on to the working masses. Due to the deterioration of the living conditions, the struggles of the workers for wages, better working conditions and unionisation have increased. These struggles are violently suppressed and criminalised. In addition to the regime’s repression, there is the negative influence of the trade union bureaucracy, which obstructs the workers’ struggles and limits them to public statements and reading of statements in the factories. Despite all these obstacles and at a time when the opposition groups are experiencing defeats, this revival of the working-class struggle is significant. It is important that generations of workers go through the school of these struggles. It is the duty of the class revolutionaries to develop and advance the class consciousness formed at this level.
23. It is clear that the class-based struggle against the regime has many difficulties. The fact that the working class is under a multifaceted and multidimensional grip, the policy of polarisation on artificial grounds, the trade union movement that has been further destroyed under fascism, etc. play an undermining role in the working class struggle. It must never be overlooked that the prejudices that the AKP government has entrenched, the state of decay, division and paralysis that it has created in society, the weight of the religious sects and communities cannot be broken without a solid, long-term and consistent organised work among the working masses.
24. In conclusion, all developments confirm again and again our determined class orientation and class-based political perspectives. The only way to successfully move forward in the period of struggle ahead is to ensure that this line of struggle gains strength.

January 2024